December 31, 2009

New York and Washington Will Follow

60 Minutes offers a glimpse of our real national economic reality (below), while New York and Washington remain wrapped in the insulation of Fed and federal money. Most national commentators remain inside that cocoon -- only vaguely aware of the actual economic reality beyond their circles (though some correspondents are more in touch with the actual America). We hear much commentary from those that rely on numbers or ideology that tells them little about the real dynamics of the economy. Those surprised at the housing collapse will be surprised again in the new decade, but this will be only one of several fundamental surprises for this class of talking heads.

The predominate economic theories are inadequate -- all of them. An Argentine-like future is likely, but there are many unknowns (what will happen with the Chinese currency peg? with tariffs?). Worse fates can happen -- Argentina is a nice country and its people seemed down to earth and friendly when I visited for 5 weeks in 2003. America is in for a major reset of its values.

Some of this reset is already clear -- many people have begun to look for better ways of living.

This will be a true recovery of a better kind.

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